Uk Airports: Will They Survive The 2030S?

The UK is facing a challenging question: should its airports close by 2030 to meet climate targets? This issue has sparked intense debate, with academics and activists calling for airport closures to reduce emissions, while businesses and local councils argue for the economic benefits of keeping airports open. The decision has far-reaching implications for the environment, travel, and local communities, and the UK must carefully weigh these factors before making a decision.

Airports and climate change

Airports are not immune to the far-reaching effects of climate change. In fact, global climate action by airports is impressively up 25% over the past year. Airports are taking steps to improve their operational resilience and adapt to the predicted effects of climate change.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change

Airports are improving their operational resilience and adapting to the predicted effects of climate change. For example, Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is managing the impact of climate change well through its operational and management practices as part of a nationwide initiative. Similarly, Changi Airport in Singapore has raised the road level surrounding the airport, acting as a levee for district-level flood protection and a de-facto fixed flood barrier.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

To achieve net-zero emissions, airports are taking steps to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, San Francisco International Airport (SFO) aims to reach its net-zero carbon goal by 2030 by converting all its buildings and ground vehicles from fossil fuels to electric power. All 54 airlines that fly out of SFO are powered by fuel that contains Sustainable Aviation Fuel made from plant and animal materials, reducing carbon emissions by up to 80%.

Reducing waste

Airports are also taking steps to reduce waste. For example, SFO banned all plastic water bottles and foodware in 2019 and is now considering reusables for on-site dining.

Lifestyle changes

To achieve net-zero emissions, academics are calling for lifestyle changes, such as a temporary halt to flying and a shift towards the use of electric cars. They also recommend eating less beef and lamb and turning down the heating in homes.

Heathrow, Glasgow and Belfast to remain open

Heathrow, Glasgow, and Belfast airports are set to remain open beyond 2030, according to a report by a team of academics led by Professor Julian Allwood from the University of Cambridge. The report, which focuses on strategies to achieve zero emissions, recommends the closure of all other UK airports by 2029, with Heathrow, Glasgow, and Belfast following suit between 2030 and 2049.

This proposal is based on the understanding that zero-emission methods of flight, such as electric planes, are not expected to be commercially viable within 30 years. Aviation could potentially restart after this period if innovative solutions, such as synthetic jet fuel or nuclear power, become feasible.

Heathrow Airport, serving London and the surrounding areas, is currently pursuing expansion plans. Despite legal challenges and delays, the airport intends to construct a third runway, with completion expected by 2030 at the earliest.

Glasgow Airport, located in Paisley, Renfrewshire, is the second-busiest airport in Scotland. It serves a variety of domestic and international destinations and has a history dating back to the 1930s.

Belfast International Airport, located in Northern Ireland, is among the busiest airports in the UK, serving over 6 million passengers annually. It is a base for several airlines, including easyJet, Jet2.com, and TUI Airways.

The decision to keep these three airports operational beyond 2030 is part of a broader strategy to gradually transition to zero emissions while considering the impact on travel, tourism, and leisure activities.

Aviation and net-zero targets

The UK has a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050. A report by a group of academics, known as UK FIRES, states that to achieve this, drastic changes are required. According to the report, all UK airports, except Heathrow, Glasgow, and Belfast, should close by 2030, with the remaining three closing by 2050. This is because electric or zero-emission aircraft are not expected to be developed in time, and most airports will need to close by the end of this decade.

The report, titled "Absolute Zero", was published by the University of Cambridge and included colleagues from five other British universities. It suggests that the government, industry, and the public cannot continue with the belief that new technologies will save them from having to make significant changes to their way of life. The academics propose a new government body, the Absolute Zero Executive, to ensure the net-zero target of the Climate Change Act is met.

The report also recommends several lifestyle changes, including a shift to smaller electric cars, a reduction in the use of heating, and a move towards more sustainable sources of energy, such as recycled steel. It is important to note that the UK government's position differs from the report's recommendations, as it supports airport expansion while taking into account economic and environmental impacts.

The aviation industry has responded to the net-zero targets by committing to bringing its net carbon emissions down to zero by 2050. However, past experiences suggest that such ambitious targets may be unrealistic. The only way to achieve net-zero aviation by 2050 is by having a substantial period of no aviation at all.

To conclude, achieving net-zero targets in the aviation industry will require a combination of innovative technologies, policy changes, and lifestyle adjustments. The UK FIRES report highlights the urgency and magnitude of the changes needed to align the aviation sector with the net-zero goal.

UK airport expansions

While there are calls for UK airports to close by 2030 to meet climate targets, there are also several UK airport expansions in the works. The UK's Climate Change Committee (CCC) has stated that to achieve net-zero by 2050, there should be no more than a 25% increase in passenger numbers from 2018 levels, and that there should be no airport expansion without a UK-wide capacity management framework. However, several airports have submitted or had approved plans for expansion.

Bristol Airport

In February 2020, Bristol Airport's application to expand its capacity by 20% was rejected by councillors due to environmental concerns. The decision was ratified by the North Somerset Council's Planning and Regulatory Committee in March 2020. However, the airport announced it would appeal the decision, and following a public inquiry, permission for the expansion was granted in February 2022. Campaigners challenged the decision in the High Court, but the court dismissed the legal challenge.

Leeds Bradford Airport

Leeds Bradford Airport submitted an application in May 2020 to nearly double its passenger numbers by 2030. In February 2021, Leeds City Council approved the plans in principle, but the application was later put on hold by the Government. In January 2022, the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government called in the application to consider its consistency with the development plan for the area and Government policies on climate change and protecting the Green Belt. In March 2022, Leeds Bradford Airport withdrew its application.

London Luton Airport

London Luton Airport has plans to increase its capacity from 18 million to 19 million passengers per year. The application was approved by Luton Borough Council in December 2021, but the decision was called in by the Secretary of State, and a public inquiry was held in September-October 2022. The inspectors recommended approval, and in August 2024, the Secretary of State agreed and granted permission for the increase in passenger numbers.

London City Airport

London City Airport initially planned to increase its capacity to 6.5 million passengers per year by 2023 but later announced it would not pursue these plans. In July 2022, the airport launched a public consultation on increasing its annual passenger limit to 9 million and extending its operating hours. The planning application was submitted in December 2022, but it was unanimously refused by Newham Council's Strategic Development Committee in July 2023. The airport intends to appeal the decision.

Southampton Airport

Southampton Airport submitted a planning application in October 2019 to extend its runway by 164 metres. The application was initially rejected by Eastleigh Local Area Committee in March 2021, but it was later approved by the full council in April 2021. Campaigners sought a judicial review of the decision, but the High Court refused the review in October 2021. The High Court's decision was then overturned, and a judicial review took place in April 2022, which dismissed the grounds for a legal challenge. Campaigners sought permission to appeal, but this was refused in August 2022.

Stansted Airport

Stansted Airport's application to increase its capacity to 43 million passengers per year was rejected by Uttlesford District Council in January 2020 due to environmental reasons. The airport appealed the decision, and in May 2021, the Planning Inspectorate approved the expansion plans. Uttlesford District Council challenged the decision in the High Court but was unsuccessful.

Gatwick Airport

Gatwick Airport has published plans to bring its existing standby runway into regular use and potentially pursue the construction of a new runway, which could increase passenger numbers to 70 million or even 95 million per annum. A public consultation on the plans was held in 2021, and the airport submitted its application for a Development Consent Order in July 2023. The Examining Authority accepted the application, and the preliminary hearing took place in February 2024. The deadline for the Secretary of State's decision has been extended to April 2025.

Heathrow Airport

Heathrow Airport's plans for a third runway have been controversial. The Court of Appeal ruled in February 2020 that the Government's policy in support of the expansion was unlawful due to its failure to consider the Paris Agreement on climate change. However, Heathrow was granted permission to challenge this ruling in the Supreme Court, which overturned the Appeal Court's decision in December 2020. The Government has stated that it will review its Airport National Policy Statement after publishing its Net Zero Aviation strategy in 2022. Heathrow is expected to submit an application for a Development Consent Order if it proceeds with the expansion.

Manston Airport

In July 2020, the Government granted permission for Manston Airport to open as a freight hub, going against the advice of the Examining Authority, which concluded that the airport would negatively impact the local economy and the UK's carbon budget. The decision was successfully challenged in the High Court, and the Government announced it would re-determine the application. An independent assessor appointed by the Secretary of State for Transport concluded that there was no need for the development. Campaigners sought a judicial review of the decision to approve the Development Consent Order, but this was dismissed by the Court in September 2023.

Farnborough Airport

Farnborough Airport, which caters mainly to private jets, has been consulting on proposals to increase its annual flight limit from 50,000 to 70,000 flights per year. After considering feedback, the airport submitted a formal planning application to Rushmoor Borough Council in November 2023. The planning application is expected to be determined after the May 2024 elections.

London Luton Airport (Additional Plans)

In February 2022, London Luton Airport launched a consultation on proposals to increase its capacity from 18 million to 32 million passengers per year.

Electric planes

A team of academics has called for the closure of every UK airport by 2050 to ensure that greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero. They argue that international shipping will also have to cease, with all UK imports and exports transported by train. To achieve net-zero emissions, the report, titled "Absolute Zero", suggests that various lifestyle changes will be necessary, including a temporary halt to flying.

The report acknowledges that there are ongoing developments in electric aviation, but it expresses scepticism about their timely availability at a commercial scale:

> "Although there are lots of new ideas about electric planes, they won’t be operating at commercial scales within 30 years, so zero emissions means that for some period, we’ll all stop using aeroplanes."

Despite this, several companies are actively working to introduce electric planes within the next few years. EasyJet, for example, has partnered with US-based manufacturer Wright Electric to develop battery-propelled jets for flights of less than two hours. Wright Electric already has a two-seater electric plane and plans to begin flying a nine-seater in 2025. EasyJet aims to have electric planes covering short-haul routes by 2030.

United Airlines is also aiming to have electric planes flying by 2030. They have placed an order for 100 planes with Swedish start-up Heart Aerospace, which is developing the ES-30, a 30-passenger plane driven by electric motors with battery-derived energy. These planes will have a fully electric range of 124 miles and will include a reserve hybrid engine powered by sustainable aviation fuel, allowing for an extended range of up to 400 kilometres.

While the future of electric aviation is promising, it remains to be seen whether these developments will be sufficient to meet the ambitious net-zero targets set by governments and academics.

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